Derivation of the Probability Distribution of Extreme Values of Offshore Structural Response by Efficient Time Simulation Method

Abstract

Offshore structures are exposed to random wave loading in the ocean environment and hence the probability distribution of the extreme values of their response to wave loading is required for their safe and economical design. To this end, the conventional simulation technique (CTS) is frequently used for predicting the probability distribution of the extreme values of response. However, this technique suffers from excessive sampling variability and hence a large num-ber of simulated response extreme values (hundreds of simulated response records) are required to reduce the sampling variability to acceptable levels. A more efficient method (ETS) was recently introduced which takes advantage of the cor-relation between the extreme values of surface elevation and their corresponding response extreme values. The method has proved to be very efficient for high-intensity sea states; however, the correlation and hence the efficiency and accura-cy of the technique reduces for sea states of lower intensity. In this paper, a more efficient version of the ETS technique is introduced which takes advantage of the correlation between the extreme values of the nonlinear response and their corre-sponding linear response values.